Synchronization among real business cycles of U.S. states

Abstract

In this paper we present a synchronization analysis of the real business cycles of U.S. states. We employ data on real GDP covering the period stretching from 2005:Q1 to 2020:Q2. From the methodological point of view, to isolate the business cycles we adopt a recently developed MatLab function for signal extraction. Once the business cycles of the U.S. states are extracted using CiSSA, we study their level of synchronization with the national one using various indices of synchronization. Moreover, based on the literature that documents how workers with different levels of education and human capital exhibit different level of propensity to migrate, we study the correlation between immigrant flows and the level of synchronization of the regional cycles with respect to the national one.