Trade surveys: qualitative and quantitative indicators

Abstract

Qualitative survey data, being designed to provide early information which are not subject to subsequent revisions, are extremely useful among the short-term statistics. Hence, qualitative and macroeconomic time series are often considered to be complementary, therefore both approaches are used to analyse the short-term economic evolution. This paper compares the retail trade confidence index (NACE Rev. 2, G 45 and G 47), a business sentiment indicator, along with quantitative data from retail trade statistics (NACE Rev. 2 G 47) and turnover in services data (NACE Rev. 2 G 45) from 2010 to 2019. First step was merging seasonally adjusted data on retail trade confidence, year-over-year percentage change indices on retail trade and turnover in services indices (division 45 only). Due to lack of accuracy in comparing the above-mentioned series, an “ad hoc” index has been produced, including both economic activities concerning quantitative surveys. The new index has been calculated as a weighted average where weights reflect the distribution of turnover across the different economic sectors. In order to test the reliability of the study, this paper proceeds with calculating a correlation between the two indicators.