Could the Bass model be applied to the Italian Emigration?

Abstract

Objectives. Our work is a first attempt at verifying whether the diffusionist theory - a
framework extensively employed in the demographic literature to interpret the spread of new ideas and practices - can adequately and meaningfully explain migration decisions and related migration data. Methods. We test whether the Bass model can properly fit the new Italian emigration when working with absolute values. In this sense, we propose interpolation applications for the different Italian macro-areas, separately. Results. The Bass model detects geographic differences in the underlying dynamics governing the new emigration flows. In Bass terms, the diffusion of the new emigratory behaviour travels at two different speeds in the Northern-Central Italy and in the South. The forces governing the pace of diffusion also reveal a geographic heterogeneity, presenting North-South divergences.