Fertility and unemployment in times of crisis in Italy 21

Abstract

Previous studies found a pro-cyclical relationship between economic downturns and fertility in Western countries, while less is known about the Great Recession’s consequences on Italy's fertility levels. Using macro-data from different ISTAT sources, from 2006 to 2018, this study investigates how changes in the economic context, specifically unemployment, have influenced fertility at the regional level. The study also explores whether and how this relationship has changed. Our findings reveal a pro-cyclical relationship between fertility levels and unemployment during the period under observation, more sensitive after 2013 and less homogeneous across macro-areas. A deeper understanding of these dynamics can inform policy interventions aimed at supporting fertility and addressing demographic behaviours in times of uncertainty.