Social and demographic predictions in inner areas: a comparison between Campania and Sicily

Abstract

Demographic forecasts aim to chart the likely future of a population in terms of size and structural indicators. For policy they are a useful tool to understand demographic trends and plan strategies of an area. The interest for the territorial dimension has always characterized the activity in the field of demographic forecasts so that, since November 2021, the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) has published demographic forecasts at 10 years, by age groups and municipalities with a population of over 20,000. The study aims to compare the demographic structure and the population movement in 2031 in the municipalities of Campania and Sicily classified according to the National Strategy for Internal Areas (SNAI) which aims to develop and territorial cohesion (Barca et al., 2014). The choice of the regions of Campania and Sicily is determined by the fact that both are the most populous in the Mezzogiorno and have well characterized and different internal areas. Work objectives, given the real diversity in territorial behaviours and demographic characteristics, are the identification of primary determinants of marginalization compared to Italy, and a study on the ageing of the population and the decline in birth rates that will influence the contraction of working-age residents in the next decade.