A Forecasting model for the Italian local public demand and expenditure of services for the senior age. The impact of demographic aging

Abstract

This paper proposes the use of a forecasting model to estimate the Italian public spending on services for the elderly, which is affected by the demand change due to demographic aging that will affect Italy in the coming decades. This phenomenon is to be addressed both at a national level and at a territorial one, through an estimate of expenditure according to different scenarios of public policy choices characterized by a marked proactivity or a simple desire for equal distribution.