Determinants of the coronavirus epidemic generation in Italy

Abstract

This study intended to analyse the secondary transmission mechanisms of the 2020 coronavirus epidemic in Italy. To do so, this paper has identified, firstly, the serial interval of the transmission, the premise for further analyses of its spatial and ecological determinants. As for spatial determinants, a broad set of spatial matrices were created and tested. With all these matrices, the existence emerged of a secondary transmission spatial spillover. Both contiguity and distance proved to be significant for this transmission. The spatial component, however, was not the sole significant determinant of the secondary transmission. Various features of the territorial units (provinces) proved to be significant. The results of both OLS and spatial regression models suggested the particular relevance of indirect indicators of social interaction and mobility.